As US President Donald Trump prepares to visit Beijing next week after a six-week delay, the cause of the delay – the war on Iran and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz – risks becoming a fresh point of friction in his summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
While both China and the US stand to benefit from the reopening of the strait and a permanent end to the war, Beijing and Washington have viewed the crisis through different lenses and sharply diverged over how to achieve their goals.
Washington, buoyed by America’s relative energy independence, may be betting China will be more vulnerable to Gulf energy disruptions. Beijing, meanwhile, may calculate that prolonged instability will weigh more heavily on the US and its allies.
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Jesse Marks, founder of Rihla Research and Advisory, a Washington-based consultancy focused on the Middle East, said Trump might raise Iran with Xi and seek cooperation on elements of a future deal, including a possible mechanism for transferring or monitoring Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, but he would probably not receive an enthusiastic response.
“Xi will likely try to compartmentalise Iran and keep the summit focused on trade, technology and bilateral stabilisation,” Marks said.
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“From Beijing’s perspective, Trump’s most useful ‘gift’ is not a concession to China; it is de-escalation itself.”