Even as “China shock 2.0” is roiling Western manufacturers, we must, it seems, brace for “China shock 3.0” – to the global food economy – as President Xi Jinping doubles down on the imperative that has obsessed Beijing for decades: food security.
“China’s Food Future”, a consultation paper by Systemiq funded by the California-based Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, warns that China is poised to “reshape global agricultural commodity supply chains”.
It suggests China is set to apply to agriculture the industry policy playbook that has lifted it to manufacturing dominance in sectors ranging from cars, batteries and rare earths, to solar and wind power, semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
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It sees Beijing’s “ability to coordinate policy, scale production and mobilise capital at unprecedented speed” driving development of a wide range of food-related technologies intended to ensure food security and reduce reliance on imports. These range from synthetic biology and new protein sources, genetically engineered farm products, seed development and fermentation-derived ingredients, all built around new domestic innovation clusters.
It expects China to reduce reliance on soy imports, improve farmland, build aquaculture, spawn vertical livestock farms and develop integrated farm-sector infrastructure.
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The paper warns: “Producer countries who are dependent on China as a destination for soy, beef and dairy need to build alternative market relationships now.” That means the United States, Brazil and New Zealand in particular, though where they will turn to replace such a large market is a moot point.