The yuan has strengthened in recent months, with the offshore rate hitting its highest level against the US dollar in more than a year, fuelling forecasts that it could reach as high as 6.8 in 2026.
The currency’s international profile has also inched upwards as Beijing pushes for wider global use.
In this explainer, the Post reviews the yuan’s progress across several fronts, drawing on a recent analysis by Betty Wang, head of North Asia research at Oxford Economics.
How far has the yuan advanced internationally?
The yuan has seen a notable rise as a settlement currency in China’s international trade flows – a shift Wang attributed to the “dramatic change in the global geopolitical landscape over the past few years”.
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In the first three quarters of 2025, cross-border yuan settlement reached 13 trillion yuan (US$1.85 trillion), up 11 per cent, year on year, accounting for 39 per cent of China’s goods trade over that period – four times the level in 2017, before the first US-China trade war.
But the currency’s broader global footprint remains limited. Daily transactions cleared through China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System average about 700 billion yuan (nearly US$100 billion) – sizeable, but still small compared with the nearly US$2 trillion routed each day through the US dollar-based Clearing House Interbank Payments System, Wang said.
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On the investment side, yuan-denominated debt issuance in international markets continues to lag behind other major currencies, accounting for just 0.8 per cent of the global market share despite modest gains in recent years.
In terms of global reserve allocation, IMF data cited in the Oxford Economics analysis shows that while the US dollar’s share fell to 56.3 per cent by the end of the second quarter of 2025 – down from 58.9 per cent at the end of 2020 – the yuan’s share also slipped, to 2.1 per cent from 2.3 per cent.