China reportedly sticking to its soybean deal with US, but worries remain

China is estimated to have secured more than half of the 12 million tonnes of soybeans that Washington says Beijing committed to purchase by early 2026, based on US government data and market conventions that analysts say usually indicate China, though little has been shipped so far, heightening concerns over potential cancellations.

While the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has officially documented nearly 4 million tonnes in sales explicitly to China, 3 million metric tonnes currently sit in the “unknown destinations” category. The practice of initial “unknown” bookings, later routed to China, is a long-standing pattern in the soybean trade, often used by state buyers to stabilise prices before physical shipment.

“It’s a common practice that the Chinese have used for years regarding beans, soybeans and sometimes corn,” said Sean Lusk, vice-president of Walsh Trading Inc, a specialised commodity brokerage firm based in Chicago, Illinois. “Unknown Destinations regarding soybean purchases for future shipment have always been considered synonymous with China.”

The firm, in its recent report, said that “between China and Unknown Destinations, purchases are close to 7 million tonnes so far”. Lusk said on Thursday that “multiple sources” indicate China has bought up to 7-7.5 million tonnes so far, describing it as a “pretty decent pace”.

This total was echoed by American financial services company StoneX: “We believe that China has bought close to 6 million tonnes of the 12 million tonnes committed to for the current year,” the firm said in a report this week.

However, Lusk emphasised that not much has been shipped.

  

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