Recent months have witnessed an important shift in the political landscape across the Taiwan Strait, one that deserves careful consideration from policymakers in Asia, Europe and the United States. Despite considerable global turbulence, years of rising tensions in Asia and external pressure, there are emerging signs of stabilisation and even fresh momentum for peaceful momentum towards unification between mainland China and Taiwan.
Taiwan’s political environment has evolved significantly since its elections in January 2024. Contrary to predictions of heightened confrontation, the island experienced no major unrest or instability. Instead, the results produced an increasingly pluralistic political scene.
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its majority, and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) – both of which support more dialogue and economic engagement with the mainland – now command a working majority in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan. This is part of a broader diversification within Taiwan’s society and politics, creating a space for dialogue that has long been obstructed.
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Most striking is the emergence of a new political dynamic within the KMT. Its recently elected chairwoman, Cheng Li-wun, has openly embraced the island’s Chinese cultural identity and has said she is willing to speak to President Xi Jinping “a hundred times” to advance dialogue.
This signals the possibility of a long-awaited return to pragmatic cross-strait engagement and reunification. Meanwhile, attempts by the ruling DPP to use a massive recall vote to expel a group of opposition lawmakers ultimately failed, with voters opting to keep them in office and leave the KMT-TPP opposition majority in the Legislative Yuan intact.
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These internal shifts are taking place just as international attitudes are changing. During the recent summit between Xi and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, both sides avoided raising the matter of Taiwan. That omission is a sharp break from Washington’s habit of putting the issue near the top of the agenda.