European officials are growing concerned that an emerging US-brokered peace deal in Ukraine could be exploited by Russia, paving the way for a reinvasion of territory in the war-battered nation’s eastern Donbas region.
The fear, a main sticking point in recent talks, is that the US plan for a demilitarised zone would give the Kremlin cover to deploy covert forces in the contested area, according to people familiar with the matter. The Kremlin might then use hybrid tactics, including so-called false flag operations, to undermine US security guarantees and manufacture the premise for a new invasion, they said.
Nearly four years after Russia’s full-scale attack, control over territory is at the centre of complex negotiations between Washington, Kyiv and Moscow as officials inch closer to an accord. Russia is demanding that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions – including territory Russia does not control – while Kyiv is refusing to concede land.
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Details of the talks are in flux. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the US has discussed turning the Donbas region into a “free economic zone” under special administration, while Russia has opted for a “demilitarised zone”. Zelensky this week floated the idea of a referendum on potential territorial resolutions for the area.
But Russia could take advantage of any withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from areas that Kyiv controls, the people familiar said on condition of anonymity as talks take place behind closed doors. That makes Europe’s main objective in the coming days and weeks to ensure that any peace deal does not contain a Russian Trojan horse.
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The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on those concerns.