Guangdong, China’s largest provincial economy, has vowed to double its economy by 2035 from 2022 levels, in line with the central government’s target of becoming a medium-level developed country by that year.
“Looking ahead, from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party (in 2022) to 2035, Guangdong aims to achieve socialist modernisation and build a modern, new Guangdong within 13 years,” provincial authorities said in their five-year plan proposals released on Monday.
“By that time, the province’s total economic output will have doubled, and regional per capita gross domestic product will reach the level of moderately developed countries.”
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Guangdong’s GDP in 2022 stood at about 13 trillion yuan (US$1.84 trillion). Doubling that figure by 2035 would bring it to about 26 trillion yuan, equivalent to the world’s seventh-largest economy today – ahead of France and behind the UK.
To reach that goal, Guangdong would need to sustain average annual growth of more than 5 per cent over the next decade – well above its current pace. The proposals emphasise technological innovation and emerging industries as central growth drivers, but analysts and local entrepreneurs warn that structural challenges make the target ambitious.
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“Faced with declining real estate investment, the shift of manufacturing industries out of China, and vacant factory and office spaces, existing solutions are limited for Guangdong,” said Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Society of Reform, a think tank affiliated with the provincial government.