How Philippines might navigate Asean’s divisions as it prepares to lead bloc

As the Philippines prepares to take over the rotating Asean chairmanship next year, Manila faces the daunting task of managing a protracted civil war in Myanmar while pushing for progress on a long-delayed code of conduct (COC) in the South China Sea.

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Analysts say Manila must navigate an Asean agenda crowded with difficult trade-offs, balancing the crisis in Myanmar where progress is expected to remain incremental with a COC process facing a 2026 deadline, even as internal divisions within the bloc threaten to complicate both priorities.

Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro confirmed that the Philippines would prioritise continuity on Myanmar when it assumed the chairmanship from Malaysia, which currently leads the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

“Malaysia had about 117 engagements, and we are of the view that we cannot do everything that was done by Malaysia, or even the past chairs,” Lazaro told reporters on November 17, stressing that Manila’s approach would be to build on established initiatives.

Lazaro’s statements came days after her appointment by President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr as the Philippines’ special envoy of the chair to Myanmar during the country’s Asean chairmanship in 2026.

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Marcos Jnr said he was confident that Lazaro would bring a “constructive, principled, and inclusive approach” to supporting the people of Myanmar as guided by the Asean Five-Point Consensus, the road map to peace adopted by Asean leaders in 2021 following the military junta’s occupation.

  

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