South Korea’s balancing act at risk as China-Japan tensions mount

South Korea is watching with mounting alarm as tensions between China and Japan escalate over the Taiwan Strait, a development that threatens to test Seoul’s pragmatic diplomacy and its balancing act between Beijing and Washington, observers warn.

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The dispute is unfolding just as Seoul has worked to stabilise long-strained relations with both regional powers, raising fears that renewed rivalry could force South Korea into unwelcome geopolitical crossfire, they add.

Analysts say the flare-up is particularly troubling because it comes at a moment when the United States is pressing Seoul to play a greater supporting role in any Taiwan-related contingency, including projecting the power of the 28,500 US troops stationed in South Korea beyond the Korean peninsula.

This pressure could complicate Seoul’s long-standing strategy of avoiding overt alignment on Taiwan while maintaining cooperation with both Beijing and Washington.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has said she wants “constructive” ties with Beijing and Japan’s stance on Taiwan remains “unchanged”. Photo: Jiji Press / AFP
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has said she wants “constructive” ties with Beijing and Japan’s stance on Taiwan remains “unchanged”. Photo: Jiji Press / AFP

In a related setback, Beijing notified Seoul that it had “temporarily” postponed a planned annual meeting of culture ministers from South Korea, China and Japan set for next week, South Korea’s culture ministry said on Thursday.

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