Pundits the world over are pointing to a new cold war – the defending champion United States versus a rising China. Deglobalisation and great power rivalry dominate headlines while world leaders prepare for chaos.
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Fortunately, a different picture emerges when we look at the data. A century of globalised trade has levelled the economic playing field. Countries are now closer in relative strength, far more interdependent and far less willing to pick sides. The “great powers” of the 21st century might no longer fit the term; what we have today are two large powers circling each other in the ring while everyone else shares a drink in the stands.
This article explores a more optimistic scenario where globalisation persists in a multipolar world. The relative weakness of the US and China, combined with the growing weight of “middle powers”, is driving nations towards cooperation rather than fracture along great-power fault lines. It is within this environment that a new multilateral framework could emerge: a Coalition for Non-Aligned Nations (Conan).
The Cold War developed on a profoundly unbalanced world stage. The US dominated global manufacturing in the years after World War II and controlled two-thirds of global gold reserves. For its part, the Soviet Union fielded the world’s largest standing army and shared with Washington the world’s only nuclear and intercontinental strike capabilities.
In that environment, most countries had little choice but to align with one power or the other. Now, more nations are taking the opportunity to build their own capacities. Income disparities between nations have declined markedly, with the between-country Gini coefficient falling from roughly 60 in 1980 to 47 in 2022.
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Military power has diffused, with nine nations now holding nuclear weapons and the permanent members of the UN Security Council now accounting for less than 50 per cent of global material capability, down from 75 per cent after World War II. In 1960, exports accounted for only 12 per cent of global GDP. Today, exports account for 29 per cent.