Why experts are sceptical about Trump’s nuclear testing claims

US President Donald Trump’s claim that Pakistan has resumed underground nuclear testing – alongside China, Russia and North Korea – has been met with scepticism by arms control experts and denials from the countries named, raising concerns about the credibility and consequences of Washington’s nuclear posture.

Pakistan, which has not conducted a nuclear explosion since 1998, issued a firm rebuttal, with a senior security official telling CBS News the country “was not the first to carry out nuclear tests and will not be the first to resume nuclear tests”.

Trump’s assertion, aired in a 60 Minutes interview on Sunday, has drawn disbelief from non-proliferation analysts who say it misrepresents the current state of nuclear weapons testing and risks inflaming regional tensions.

They note that Islamabad has observed a self-declared moratorium for more than two decades, and that all three other nations he named have denied conducting recent nuclear explosions.

Experts also warn that by conflating non-explosive system trials and sub-critical experiments with full-scale detonations, Trump risks eroding long-standing test bans and destabilising fragile deterrence frameworks at a time of rising geopolitical rivalry.

“The problem is, none of the countries he named has openly tested nuclear weapons in years,” said Ludovica Castelli, project manager of the non-proliferation and disarmament programme at Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome.

“The only country to have tested a nuke in the 21st century is North Korea, which has observed a self-declared moratorium since 2018,” Castelli told This Week in Asia.