Using Richard Nixon’s “madman theory” of international relations, it appears that US President Donald Trump aims to pressure Russia and China into making significant concessions. His decision to impose sanctions on Russia’s oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, could not only impact the Russian economy but also the Kremlin’s energy cooperation with Beijing.
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Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe imported substantial amounts of Russian crude. While China has been the top individual purchaser since 2017, the European Union as a whole remained Russia’s largest market. However, no single EU member individually exceeded Beijing’s imports.
Following Western sanctions on Russia, Moscow redirected its oil exports eastward. As a result, by 2025, China accounted for around 47 per cent of Russia’s crude oil shipments, followed by India with 38 per cent. It is no secret that Beijing and New Delhi are benefiting from discounted Russian oil imports.
Nevertheless, China and India do not seem willing to put all their eggs in one basket and risk the repercussions of Trump’s secondary sanctions. US unilateral sanctions have a global reach that effectively isolates companies from international finance and trade.
It is, therefore, no surprise that Chinese state-owned corporations have reportedly suspended purchases of Russian oil, while Indian refiners are preparing to sharply reduce imports. That, however, does not necessarily mean that Beijing and New Delhi plan to completely end energy cooperation with Moscow. Such a move would severely impact their economies.
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Given that India’s Nayara Energy, the country’s second-largest single-site oil refinery, is already affected by Western sanctions, it will almost certainly continue purchasing Russian crude in some capacity. China, meanwhile, has reportedly set a quota for oil imports through non-state channels for 2026 at 257 million tonnes. Even if state-owned companies do not resume oil imports from Russia, Beijing still has the means to maintain or even increase purchases of Russian crude through private refiners.