East Timor’s recalibration of its stance on Myanmar’s military regime has drawn both scrutiny and intrigue across Southeast Asia, as Dili seeks to smooth its path into Asean ahead of next month’s summit.
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Once a vocal critic of Myanmar’s junta, which came to power in a 2021 coup that toppled the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and plunged the country into civil conflict, East Timor has in recent weeks taken a markedly softer line.
Dili reportedly assured the junta earlier this month it would not permit opposition groups such as the National Unity Government (NUG) to operate or hold office on Timorese soil, marking a diplomatic about-turn.
My guess is that Asean wants East Timor to mend fences with the junta
The shift has been widely interpreted as a pragmatic gesture, intended to allay concerns among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ member states and eliminate the final obstacles to East Timor’s long-sought accession. Observers are divided over the implications, however.
“Dili would not want a potential hurdle to its long-awaited accession,” said political analyst Vu Lam, pointing to the “pragmatic and strategic pressures associated with its imminent Asean accession”.
Joanne Lin, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Asean Studies Centre, echoed the sentiment: “[East Timor] has come a very long way to reach this point, and the last thing it wants is drama playing out days or weeks before the October summit that could cast doubt on its entry.”
‘A sovereign choice’
East Timor – also known as Timor-Leste – has been on the threshold of Asean for decades, earning observer status in 2022, more than 20 years after gaining independence from Indonesia. Its membership is expected to be formally affirmed at the 47th Asean Summit in Kuala Lumpur from October 26-28.