As China drafts its 15th five-year plan – the next entry in a line of expansive blueprints that have set the tone for the country’s development over more than seven decades – we examine how these documents inform and reflect high-level policy priorities, what to expect in the coming iteration and why Beijing has continued this tradition after the seismic economic changes of the reform era.
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“Plans can’t keep up with changes,” the Chinese proverb goes. Yet for more than seven decades, China has relied on successive five-year plans to chart its course, making it one of the few nations steadfastly committed to long-term planning – a strategic approach President Xi Jinping calls a “unique political advantage”.
By the end of 2025, China will have completed 14 five-year plans, evolving along the way from post-war poverty into a technological powerhouse – and from a rigid command economy into a hybrid system blending government oversight with a market economy.
At a time of rising global uncertainty, attention has now shifted to Beijing’s policy priorities over the next half decade as officials begin drafting the 15th five-year plan covering the period from 2026 to 2030. The latest blueprint is set to be discussed at the Communist Party’s fourth plenary session in October.
As market reforms advanced, the five-year plan had a relatively low profile. In recent years, however, it has regained prominence as China faces increasing obstacles to achieving its long-term goals – especially given its fragile, volatile relations with the United States.
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The party has pledged to achieve a per capita gross domestic product at the level of a “moderately” developed country by 2035 – more than doubling the current level of about US$13,000. Should that be achieved, it would lay the groundwork for the “centenary goal” of becoming a fully-fledged “modern socialist country” by 2049, the 100-year anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
Experts said the five-year plans drafted over this time will be essential to achieve such grand ambitions. But given rising uncertainties at home and overseas, they cautioned that Beijing needed to be flexible by prioritising qualitative goals over rigid quantitative targets.