As the trade war between the world’s two largest economies drags on, the impact is already showing: China’s exports to the United States were down 15.5 per cent year on year in the first eight months of 2025.
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But US tariffs are not affecting China equally. The country is made up of more than 30 provincial-level regions, and there is a wide divergence between these areas both in terms of their exposure to the US market and the effect of the trade war.
Some provinces have recorded steep drops in US exports; others have continued to see shipments soar – in some cases by as much as 265 per cent.
This explainer provides a regional-level overview of China’s response to US tariffs – showing which regions are most vulnerable and how local governments and companies are adapting. It is based on calculations and research by economists at CIB Research, a research institute affiliated with the Fujian-based Industrial Bank.
Which regions have the highest exposure to the US market?
China’s export hubs on the country’s eastern coastline dominate trade with the United States. Six coastal regions – Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shandong and Fujian – together accounted for nearly 80 per cent of China’s exports to the US in value terms during the first seven months of 2025, according to CIB Research.