Maritime tensions between the Philippines and China have entered what analysts describe as a risky and potentially volatile phase after an accidental collision between two Chinese vessels near Scarborough Shoal, one of the most contested features in the South China Sea.
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The rare mishap involving the vessels from the Chinese coastguard and navy during a high-speed chase of a Philippine coastguard ship has raised the risk of Beijing adopting a more aggressive posture as it seeks to save face, potentially leading to further tensions in the disputed waters, according to analysts.
Chester Cabalza, founding president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank in Manila, said the Chinese coastguard and navy could “launch a thousand assets from the sea, cyber, air, and ground to redeem its military image in the region” because of the “embarrassing collision”.
Nonetheless, officials in Manila reaffirmed the Philippines’ intention to exercise restraint while defending its sovereignty in response to the incident on August 11 and other subsequent maritime activities involving Chinese vessels.
“We will not be intimidated. And we will continue to have our presence felt to protect and defend sovereignty in our jurisdiction,” said Undersecretary Alexander Lopez, spokesman for the National Maritime Council, the government’s coordinating and policymaking body on maritime concerns, during a press briefing on Monday.
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Borrowing a line from President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, Lopez said: “Now, we do not intensify operations, we just respond.”