Is Prabowo’s big budget for Indonesia achievable or overly ambitious?

Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto has unveiled an ambitious draft budget for 2026 that seeks to boost growth and expand social spending while maintaining financial discipline, but economists caution the plan may be based on optimistic revenue projections and risks undercutting social safety nets.

On Friday, Prabowo announced a gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of 5.4 per cent under the draft budget. Total spending is projected to reach 3.79 quadrillion rupiah (US$233.92 billion), a 7.3 per cent rise from this year, while total revenues are targeted at 3.147 quadrillion rupiah (US$194.04 billion), a nearly 10 per cent increase from 2025.

Prabowo’s administration aims to cap next year’s deficit at around US$39 billion, or 2.48 per cent of GDP – within the country’s legal requirement for a deficit of under 3 per cent of GDP.

“We will continue to implement efficiency measures so that we can minimise this deficit as much as possible,” Prabowo told parliament on Friday, signalling that his austerity measures would be kept in place across ministries and other government institutions.

“And it is my hope that one day, whether in 2027 or 2028, I want to stand before this assembly, at this podium, and declare that we have succeeded in having a state budget with no deficit whatsoever.”

Prabowo’s first budget as president reflects his campaign pledge to invest in long-term human development. His flagship free meals programme – aimed at curbing child stunting and malnutrition – will receive 335 trillion rupiah (US$20.6 billion), nearly five times more than this year’s allocation. The initiative targets over 82 million children, toddlers and pregnant women.