With Poland bracing for potential Russian aggression and the Philippines contending with sustained tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea, analysts say the two countries may find strategic common ground – not just in their geopolitical outlooks, but also in their shared aspirations as “emerging middle powers”.
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Warsaw’s dramatic ramp-up in defence spending and its uncompromising stance against Moscow’s provocations have drawn the attention of Filipino security analysts, some of whom see useful parallels with Manila’s struggle to modernise its forces and deter Chinese pressure in the South China Sea.
“There are valuable lessons that Manila can learn from Warsaw despite their geographic distance, as both face similar strategic dilemmas as front lines in rivalries between hegemonic powers,” said Chester Cabalza, founder and president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank.
Tensions between Russia and Poland have escalated in recent years. Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Warsaw has doubled its defence spending from 2.4 per cent of gross domestic product to nearly 5 per cent – an outlay expected to reach some €30 billion (US$35 billion) this year – and has pursued a sweeping programme of military modernisation.
In May, Poland ordered the closure of Russia’s consulate in Krakow after authorities linked Moscow to a fire that damaged more than 1,000 shops in a Warsaw shopping centre last year. In retaliation, Russia shut down the Polish consulate in Kaliningrad.
Meanwhile, the Philippines and China remain locked in a protracted territorial dispute in the West Philippine Sea – Manila’s term for its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. In recent years, China has been accused of deploying “grey-zone tactics” to assert its claims in the disputed waterway, despite a 2016 international tribunal ruling in favour of the Philippines.