Will US-Japan nuclear talks ease Tokyo’s concern over a Taiwan Strait conflict?

The US and Japan have for the first time reportedly discussed the potential use of nuclear weapons, seeking to strengthen the credibility of the US nuclear umbrella as Tokyo weighs up the risks of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

Experts say the development may ease Japan’s concern about supporting Taiwan’s defence, but is set to upset Beijing.

Japan’s Kyodo News reported on the weekend that the two countries had been discussing a scenario in which the US military would use nuclear weapons in the event of a contingency in East Asia.

The report, citing anonymous sources, said such a move was “a sign that they are seeking to strengthen the US nuclear umbrella, under which Japan is protected, amid intensifying military activity by China, North Korea and Russia”.

Analysts say the latest step builds on the adoption in December of the first “Guidelines for Extended Deterrence” between the allies, which stressed the need for better communication procedures about US nuclear weapons to defend Japan’s security.

“Japan has been seeking stronger US commitments to enhance extended nuclear deterrence … The reported discussions on a potential scenario for the use of nuclear weapons reflect bilateral efforts to implement the guidelines,” said Zhao Tong, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“A strengthened US nuclear umbrella may ease Japan’s concerns about supporting Taiwan’s defence, but Japan’s decisions on military involvement in a future Taiwan contingency will likely hinge more on perceived US commitment to Taiwan and broader regional power dynamics.”

Extended deterrence is a US strategic policy designed to deter adversaries from attacking American allies – including Nato members, as well as Japan and South Korea – by signalling that such aggression could provoke a powerful US response, potentially including nuclear weapons.

  

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