Taiwan recall: cross-strait crisis averted for now, but new uncertainty ahead

The spectacular collapse of Taiwan’s mass recall campaign against opposition lawmakers over the weekend has averted an immediate cross-strait crisis, according to analysts.

Yet the ripple effects are reverberating across the Pacific – casting fresh uncertainty over Taiwan’s defence ambitions, complicating its ties with the US, and recalibrating the island’s delicate political balance amid escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington.

Saturday’s unprecedented recall vote, which targeted 24 opposition Kuomintang (KMT) lawmakers accused by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and allied civic groups of blocking key legislation and undermining national security, ended with none losing their seats.

Beyond the local political fallout, analysts said the outcome had temporarily eased cross-strait tensions.

“Although the recall campaign was essentially a political struggle between the opposition and the ruling authorities, the DPP and pro-recall civic groups framed it as a battle to ‘resist China, protect Taiwan’,” said Max Lo, executive director of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, a Taipei-based think tank.

Lo said that from a cross-strait perspective, a successful recall could have triggered shock waves – possibly prompting a strong backlash, if not an early confrontation.

“A successful recall would suggest anti-China sentiment has become highly prevalent in Taiwan – a consequence that could lead Beijing to give up hopes of wooing the Taiwanese. It would be dangerous if mainland China believes so,” he said.