3 miscalculations EU has made in dealing with US and China

The summit between the European Union and China has turned out to be a non-event, the worst so far. The reason for this is not too difficult to understand.

After US President Donald Trump returned to the White House, the EU has found itself falling between two stools, torn between Washington and Beijing. Europeans were surprised when Trump won the US presidential election in 2016 but viewed it as a one-off aberration. Without the challenge posed by Trump, though, EU leaders might not see the need to make any fundamental changes.

European leaders have made three miscalculations. First, they cannot grasp the sea change brought about by Trump’s anti-elite revolution. Their much-cherished rules-based international order is moribund, but European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her colleagues cling to the idea of its resurrection.

For the last four years, the EU has pursued a misguided policy towards China based on transatlantic solidarity. This strategy began under Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, but has been jettisoned entirely by the current administration despite the efforts of von der Leyen and others to accommodate Trump. The foundation of transatlantic solidarity between the EU and the United States has shifted, and not just because of Trump’s global trade war that has not spared Europe.

Second, the EU is persisting with its old playbook in dealing with China. This approach is one of “systemic rivalry”, with ideological confrontation and economic de-risking intended to provide a base for transatlantic policy towards China.

However, Trump and his administration have fundamentally undermined the basis for any foreign policy. Many of the accusations levelled against China and Chinese President Xi Jinping – such as disrupting the global economy, supporting Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, pushing expansionist territorial claims and engaging in a variety of repressive domestic policies – can now easily be turned back towards Trump and the US. Any previous ideological similarities between the US and EU have turned out to be irrelevant.

  

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