The trafficking of materials to make the drug fentanyl – the issue cited by the US in its initial tariff escalation against China in March – is set to be back in focus for future talks, analysts said, after two previous rounds did not appear to broach the subject.
Advertisement
Speculation over the drug’s presence in future negotiations was fuelled by US President Donald Trump’s remarks on the topic Wednesday, making reference to China’s “big steps” – including the threat of the death penalty for smugglers – to curb the movement of chemical precursors across American borders.
If the issue is addressed, some experts said the tension between the world’s two largest economies could be further relaxed in August, after a 90-day truce agreed to during May talks in Geneva. Others expressed greater optimism, estimating a return to the 2020 trade deal that ended the escalatory spiral – albeit temporarily.
“It’s reasonable to view the fentanyl issue as a potential ‘third stage’ in US-China negotiations, particularly given how politically salient it has become in Washington,” said Matteo Giovannini, senior finance manager at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and a non-resident associate fellow at the Centre for China and Globalisation, a Beijing-based think tank.
“While not traditionally a trade matter, the fentanyl crisis has been elevated to a core national security and public health concern in the US, which means it can be leveraged in broader bilateral talks.”
Advertisement
Fentanyl is a powerful synthetic opioid. It has become the leading cause of death in the United States for people aged 18 to 45, according to the country’s Drug Enforcement Administration.