Tensions could worsen between Beijing and Manila over the disputed South China Sea with “more provocations” expected after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr shored up support in the midterm election, a Chinese maritime analyst says.
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Wu Shicun, founder of the government-sponsored think tank the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, also said Beijing and Hanoi could be heading for confrontation over Vietnam’s increasing land reclamation activities in the contested Spratly Islands.
He said there was no sign that tensions would ease over the maritime disputes in the South China Sea and the Philippines was now the “most prominent” rival claimant.
Wu made the remarks at a seminar in Beijing on Thursday ahead of the ninth anniversary of a historic ruling by a tribunal in The Hague that dismissed China’s claims to large swathes of the resource-rich South China Sea, saying they had “no legal basis”. The case was brought by the Philippines and the ruling was rejected by China.
Addressing foreign diplomats, academics and officials, Wu accused Manila of trying to “occupy” new maritime features and to “expand disputes” over Second Thomas Shoal, Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal, where a series of run-ins between Chinese and Philippine vessels have taken place in recent months.
He also pointed to the Philippines allowing a US mid-range missile system to be deployed in the north of the country, saying it was an attempt to “disrupt cross-strait peace”.
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The mid-range capability launcher, also known as Typhon, was stationed in the Philippines in April 2024 during joint exercises with the US, its first overseas deployment. Manila later said it had decided to keep the system indefinitely.
Beijing was angered by the move given the strike capabilities of the ground-based launcher, which can fire Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles with a range of up to 2,000km (1,242 miles) – meaning parts of the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait and even southern China would be within reach.