Is Japan facing higher risk of drone warfare over Diaoyu Islands?

China could test Japan’s resolve by flying drones near disputed islands in the East China Sea after Tokyo clarified that its military is authorised to shoot down such unmanned aircraft intruding into its airspace, according to analysts.

In response to a written query from a lawmaker, the Japanese government affirmed at a cabinet meeting on June 27 that the Self-Defence Forces could take such an action even if foreign drones were not an immediate threat to the country’s security.

Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an associate professor at Tokyo International University’s Institute for International Strategy, said the clarification was less about a policy change and more about codifying what had already been tacitly understood.

“The decision in itself is not particularly significant as this is dealing with uncrewed aircraft, which is very different to the far more stringent rules attached to dealing with manned aircraft,” he said.

Still, Hinata-Yamaguchi warned that the explicit rules might invite Beijing to test Tokyo’s stance.

“Beijing may well decide to try to call Japan’s bluff on this by sending a drone into Japanese airspace and seeing how Japan responds,” he told This Week in Asia. “If I were the Chinese, that is what I would do.”