The United States’ attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites on June 22 have been described as a “spectacular military success” by US President Donald Trump. Some have concluded that Israel has emerged as the definitive winner in a long-festering regional rivalry. The political objective of this dramatic American intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict was a simple Trump goal: “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”
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With a fragile ceasefire in place between Israel and Iran, an objective assessment of US and Israeli policy would suggest that the actions of the two countries were unlawful and will ultimately weaken an already dented and weakened global nuclear non-proliferation regime.
The trigger for Israel’s attack was the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) finding on June 12 that censured Iran for violation of enrichment commitments and site inspections. Any such breach by a state without nuclear weapons – such as Iran, a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons – should have been taken to the UN Security Council to decide how to hold that state accountable.
It is telling that the UN Security Council’s five permanent members are also the first five nuclear-armed states – the US, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and China – which acquired this capability between 1945 and 1964 and subsequently helped forge the NPT in 1968 to manage the global nuclear domain.
In essence, these five nations named themselves the guardians of global nuclear governance. However imperfect, the NPT regime ensured that most nations – with notable exceptions such as India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel – agreed not to acquire nuclear weapons from others. The global majority accepted the status of permanent non-nuclear weapon states with the caveat that they could pursue peaceful nuclear programmes, subject to compliance with IAEA safeguards and inspections.
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Under a separate UN Security Council resolution, states without nuclear weapons are entitled to security guarantees from nuclear weapon states. The US nuclear umbrella for its allies might be seen as an example.