Will Trump’s Iran strikes bring real peace or more pain?

President Donald Trump claimed victory after US forces attacked three key nuclear sites in Iran last weekend, but the operation might not translate into diplomatic gains – at least for now, observers said.

They noted that whether the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran would hold remained uncertain, while Trump’s unpredictable rhetoric and actions were making it increasingly difficult for foreign governments, including China, to trust the United States.

“In the short-run it appeared to be a gain for Trump, as the attacks dealt a significant blow to Iran’s nuclear programme, but in the long term this could also make Iran determined that the only path is to pursue nuclear weapons; otherwise it would continue to be oppressed by the US and Israel,” said Wu Xinbo, director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

Iran’s hostility with the US and Israel was unlikely to end, he added.

“Whether it is the conflict with Israel or the tensions with the US, none of these issues have been resolved … so in the short term, it may be a gain, but in the long run, it could turn into pain for the US.”

CNN, citing a preliminary classified US intelligence assessment, reported on Wednesday that the US military strikes did not destroy the core components of Iran’s nuclear programme but “likely only set it back by months”.