South Korea’s Nato no-show: pragmatism or diplomatic shift?

With the Middle East in turmoil and his own government barely weeks old, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has opted to forgo this week’s Nato summit in the Netherlands – a move that analysts say shows the shifting sands of regional diplomacy.

Unlike his conservative predecessor, Yoon Suk-yeol, who attended the transatlantic security alliance’s summits three times in as many years, Lee’s expected Nato absence has prompted speculation over Seoul’s diplomatic intentions. Observers warn against reading too much into the move, however.

“President Lee would have attended the Nato summit but for the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities,” Lim Eul-chul, an international relations specialist and professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies think tank, told This Week in Asia on Monday.

“It would be reading too much into it to see this decision as a signal to China or a shift in South Korea’s diplomatic calculus under the new government,” Lim added, noting that the Lee administration was still formulating its regional and global strategies.

But other observers cautioned that optics matter when it comes to geopolitics.

Lee might have been concerned “that a strongly worded joint statement could offend China”, suggested Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.