Hong Kong is at risk of splitting up into two economies. On one end, Hong Kong’s financial, professional and business services are being revived on the back of China’s resurgent, tech-driven economy and the shifting balance of power between Washington and Beijing.
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US President Donald Trump’s global tariff war, announced on April 2, was supposed to kneecap the world. But the shock and awe unleashed have rapidly dissipated due to rising misgivings about the looming fiscal crisis, compounded by the US immigration crackdown and Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” to cut taxes for the wealthy, which is likely to add an estimated US$2.8 trillion to the fiscal deficit.
Credit rating downgrades, poor responses to auctions of US Treasuries and slower growth as predicted by the World Bank – lowered to 1.4 per cent in June from 2.3 per cent in January – have sent the mighty US dollar on a downtrend and a flight of capital to Asia for better returns.
Hong Kong’s stock market is positioned in the right place at the right time. As tariff chaos and policy flip-flops erode the US’ credibility and moral standing, China has emerged as an oasis of certainty in an increasingly volatile and dangerous world.
The mainland’s use of Hong Kong as a platform for its new tech champions to raise funds and connect with global markets has fuelled the city’s return to its role as one of the world’s top fundraising venues. More than 100 enterprises – including leading companies from the mainland – are said to be in line for public listing on Hong Kong’s stock exchange. The Hang Seng Index is up 15 per cent in the first quarter of this year, building on a surge of over 17 per cent in 2024.
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State policies aimed at maximising the use of Hong Kong’s internationally connected financial and capital markets have helped, but local officials have not sat on their hands either. Taking advantage of the city’s reformed legislative system, the government has taken action to bolster Hong Kong’s position as a global financial hub.