Israel’s attacks risk pushing Iran towards nuclear weapon development

Israel’s attacks against Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities and assassinations of several of the regime’s leadership figures could pile pressure on Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei to drop his long-standing ideological opposition to Tehran’s construction of nuclear weapons.

To arrive at that seminal moment, Tehran must first decide whether to carefully calibrate its response to the hundreds of Israeli attacks conducted overnight so as to avoid direct military intervention by the United States, according to analysts.

Iran did so during its exchange of air attacks with Israel in April and October last year.

But Middle East experts said Israel’s killing of Tehran’s two top military leaders, its top nuclear talks negotiator, and several nuclear programme scientists had shaken the very foundations of the Islamic Republic, leaving it in a strategic bind.

Pushed to the wall, the Iranian leadership might conclude that nuclear armament was its only option, although any movement in that direction would have to be conducted as covertly as possible, analysts said.

“In the long run, it [the Israeli attack] is more likely to push Iran toward nuclear weapons,” said Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the Washington-based Arms Control Association.

“Israel cannot destroy Iran’s nuclear programme,” she said in a social media post.