Japan’s appetite for rice set to keep prices high as farm politics persist

Japan’s efforts to curb soaring rice prices by releasing stockpiles and easing import restrictions have had limited effect, with analysts warning the country’s long-standing agricultural policies and supply constraints could keep prices elevated for years.

Supermarket prices for rice remained stubbornly high at 4,214 yen (US$28.50) per five kilograms in the week to May 4 despite the first decline in 18 weeks after a record peak the previous week, and they were more than double the price from a year earlier, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

The persistent price surge, which began in the summer of 2024, has rattled the food sector. Convenience stores have raised prices on rice balls and bento boxes, while beef bowl chains Matsuya and Yoshinoya have shifted to imported or blended rice to contain costs.

Several factors are fuelling the spike, according to Ogawa Masayuki, an assistant professor and an agricultural economist at Utsunomiya University. On the demand side, record inbound tourism and heightened hoarding due to fears of a major earthquake along the Nankai Trough have led to a price jump.

“On the supply side, the hot weather [in 2023] caused a significant drop in rice quality,” Ogawa told This Week in Asia.

The record-breaking summer heat of that year severely affected grain quality and rice yields.