The rolling billows of the escalating trade war between China and the US are now lapping at the shores of the emergent humanoid robotics industry, threatening to derail Tesla’s bold vision of mass-producing its Optimus robot.
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The company’s ambitious goal of keeping the robot’s production price at US$20,000 could be unattainable without access to China’s vast and cost-efficient supply chain, analysts warn.
“Tesla’s mass-production plan for Optimus is likely to be put on hold,” said Xu Xuecheng, lead scientist of the Zhejiang Humanoid Robot Innovation Centre in Ningbo.
Many core components of humanoid robots developed by companies such as Tesla and Figure – including exteriors, actuators, joints and ball screws – are sourced heavily from suppliers in China.
Overseas humanoid companies are not yet importing a great amount from China, as they are still in the process of developing a marketable product, but when they start mass production, they may need to rely on China’s established supply chain for hardware, which accounts for the lion’s share of a humanoid’s cost.
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China’s actuators are not necessarily the most advanced, yet the country’s manufacturing ecosystem is so mature, and years of intense competition have driven prices down while keeping quality high, Xu said.