Though US President Donald Trump has predicted a visit to Washington by his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in the “not too distant future”, analysts said such a meeting might not yield an immediate trade deal.
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“[The negotiation] would probably focus on narrowing the gap of trade imbalances,” said Tan Junyu, regional economist for North Asia at trade credit insurance company Coface. He added China may not be able to “digest” a much larger import bill from the US due to weakness in domestic demand.
“This would mean that China may have to divert some of its import orders from other trading partners to America,” he explained at a panel held by the General Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong on Tuesday, citing products like aeroplanes from Europe and soybeans from Brazil.
With Trump continuing to tout his prowess as a deal-maker in his second term as president, considerable attention has been drawn to a potential bilateral negotiation, especially after China only partially met its commitments to purchase US goods and services between 2020 and 2021 under the phase-one trade agreement.
Trump’s administration is examining the phase-one deal and plans to deliver a report on it by April 1. The US president had also announced that reciprocal tariffs will be implemented on April 2, with additional tariffs targeting specific industries such as automobiles, steel and aluminium.
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Earlier this month, the Post cited multiple sources as saying Trump could visit China as early as next month, although dates were yet to be finalised.