Japan faces an unsettling reality in US President Donald Trump’s second term: its most crucial ally is questioning the very foundations of their defence pact. Recently, Trump once again questioned the fairness of the US-Japan security treaty, saying that “we have to protect them, but they don’t have to protect us. And by the way, they make a fortune with us economically … Who makes these deals?”
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Trump’s words echo the grievances voiced during his first term, yet carry more weight now. With Washington re-examining its global commitments, Tokyo faces the dilemma of managing a shifting landscape without losing its strategic footing.
For decades, Japan’s mutual defence treaty with the United States has been the cornerstone of its security policy. In exchange for hosting and providing substantial financial support for more than 50,000 US troops, Japan has received security guarantees which have deterred potential regional adversaries. However, Trump’s persistent scepticism about US alliances and transactional approach to foreign policy suggest Japan must prepare for a future where US support is neither unconditional nor guaranteed.
For obvious reasons, Trump’s recent remarks have reignited anxiety about the US’ long-term commitment to Japan’s defence. Trump does not shy away from using public pressure, as seen in his public clash at the White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Given his preference for public posturing, Japan should brace itself for similar treatment, perhaps in the form of a demand for greater defence spending, more Japanese purchases of US weapons or a more direct military role in containing China.
This is not the first time Trump has called the US-Japan treaty into question, having long argued that the agreement is “unfair” to the US. His description of the treaty as one-sided raises the prospect of his administration pushing for a renegotiation or even unilaterally withdrawing from it altogether, in keeping with sudden swings in the US’ stance towards the likes of Canada, Greenland and Ukraine.
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Such statements could be a precursor to a strategic shift for Japan, which is heavily reliant on the US security umbrella. Tokyo has invested heavily in its alliance with Washington, increasing its defence budget and strengthening military cooperation to align with US strategic priorities. However, Trump’s transactional approach to alliances and demands that allies pay more for US protection have left the leadership in Japan scrambling.
