When leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization gather in Washington next week to commemorate the enduring unity between Europe and North America, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will be the names dominating the discussions.
A senior official in US President Joe Biden’s administration said on Friday that the negotiations on the final communique of the summit were continuing, but the text in the draft on China was “very solid”.
Reiterating evidence of Beijing’s role in reconstitution of Moscow’s defence industry, he added that China was not only “fuelling” the war in Ukraine but also “creating a long-term challenge for European security that obviously our allies recognise”.
“And so, we will have, I think, strong language on this,” he said, confirming that the issue will be taken up by Nato with its other partners from Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
The three-day gathering, which begins on Tuesday, will take place as the US and Europe seek new friends, navigate competition with new adversaries, and brace for significant domestic political transitions with potentially lasting implications for the world’s oldest surviving defence pact.
In an op-ed published in Foreign Affairs on Wednesday, Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Putin had become “increasingly aligned with other authoritarian powers, including China, that wish to see the United States fail, Europe fracture and Nato falter”.
Last month, he said: “Presidents Putin and Xi are adamantly opposed to Nato because they know that in Nato, the United States has something they don’t have – 31 friends and allies.”
And in what sounded like a response to Trump’s remarks about encouraging the Russians to do “whatever the hell they want” to any Nato member country, Stoltenberg reminded Washington that the 75-year-old alliance had helped “advance US interests, multiply US power and keep Americans safe”.
Nato was born on April 4, 1949, from the ashes of World War II. The goal of its 12 founding countries, including the US, was to ensure their “collective defence” in an “unpredictable” world, according to Nato’s website.
The bloc – which expanded to 32 nations with the addition of Sweden and Finland after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – now faces “an even more dangerous world”, Stoltenberg said.
Member countries voluntarily contribute troops and funding to the alliance, with each nation determining its defence spending. The alliance does not possess its own army; instead, its military protections are guaranteed by its member countries.
In 2014, Nato leaders pledged to allocate at least 2 per cent of their countries’ gross domestic product to defence spending.
In 2023, only 11 countries met that threshold. According to Stoltenberg, more than 20 members have already met or are close to meeting the alliance’s spending target this year.
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Ukraine’s leader says Nato summit end a ‘big positive’ despite no timeline for Kyiv membership
Ukraine’s leader says Nato summit end a ‘big positive’ despite no timeline for Kyiv membership
Analysts said they expected more rhetoric than action at the summit, pointing to concerns including US President Joe Biden’s health after a poor debate performance against Nato detractor and election rival Trump; French President Emmanuel Macron’s electoral setbacks against the far-right; Hungarian President Viktor Orban’s recent talks with Putin; disagreements over more aid for Ukraine and its path to membership; war weariness among the European public; and a challenging economic environment on the continent.
Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Engagement Programme at Defence Priorities, a think tank in Washington, said he didn’t “really expect a lot of new things” given the “very difficult situation” for Nato countries facing “a variety of interlocking crises”.
“All the complications of domestic politics, whether in Britain or France or the United States, the Netherlands; Viktor Orban showing up in Kyiv, making a peace overture,” Goldstein said.
In May, France and Germany allowed Ukraine to use their weapons against targets inside Russia. Macron has also suggested the possibility of French troops in Ukraine. Under his leadership, Paris has been one of Kyiv’s strongest supporters.
But the French far-right, leading in parliamentary elections, has vowed to cut aid to Ukraine. Until earlier this year, France’s National Rally Party called for deepening diplomatic ties with Russia.
Ahead of the summit, Nato allies have failed to commit to precise figure for aid to Ukraine in future years. Undercutting Stoltenberg’s idea of a multi-year funding proposal with US$100 billion, the bloc will announce a US$43 billion package for Kyiv in 2025.
There’s still no consensus on when and how to include Ukraine as a Nato member. The senior Biden administration official said on Friday that while the allies were still debating the language in the final declaration, they would be announcing “a bridge” toward making Ukraine’s eventual membership “irreversible”.
But an open letter on Wednesday, 60 foreign policy experts warned against advancing Ukraine’s membership.
“If Ukraine were to join Nato, Russia would have reason to doubt the credibility of Nato’s security guarantee – and would gain an opportunity to test and potentially rupture the alliance,” it said, adding that the “result could be a direct Nato-Russia war or the unravelling of Nato itself”.
Goldstein of Defence Priorities noted that most countries that have reached the 2 per cent threshold were geographically close to Russia – such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – or “usual suspects” like Poland but that many others were “very reluctant”.
In 2023, the biggest Nato defence spender was Poland, followed by the US, with stronger powers like Germany, France and Italy far behind.
Biden has been a staunch supporter of the alliance, but as he prepares to host the summit, his political future hangs in balance. There have been loud calls, including from within his own party, for him to withdraw from the presidential race after his dismal debate performance.
A latest New York Times/Siena College poll showed Biden, who’s more than six years older than Nato, trailing by six percentage points – 49 per cent to 43 per cent – against Trump, who as president accused allies of not “paying their bills” and threatened to withdraw from the bloc.
According to US media reports, Trump’s aides have discussed a revamp of Nato that would diminish the US’s role as Europe’s primary security guarantor.
Another proposal involves a potential agreement on Ukraine, where Nato would pledge to abstain from further eastward expansion while permitting Moscow to maintain its current territorial acquisitions.
Trump has repeatedly suggested that he would halt American military aid to Ukraine, and claimed that he could end the war in three days if re-elected.
Goldstein called the situation “hugely destablising” for Nato, saying the “timing could not be worse for Nato and for the Biden administration”.
“Even if Biden was in perfect health, the alliance would still be in hot water. But in this circumstance, it’s almost the worst case scenario … where the alliance is literally rudderless, and all eyes are on Trump and what he might do,” he said.
The senior Biden administration official said he was not concerned about Trump’s words but added: “We’re going to continue to press for equitable burden sharing and for credible plans from all allies.”
At a time when Europe could be facing cuts in US defence support, Washington has identified Beijing as its No 1 threat, but for Brussels Russia remains the biggest security challenge.
Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank in Berlin, said that regardless of who won the US presidential election, it was time for Europeans to “accept more responsibilities for the defence of Europe” and approach it “much more strategically”.
He emphasised the need for a comprehensive strategy spanning the next decade, focusing on immediate actions to bolster Ukraine and enhance European readiness and combat capabilities, which have traditionally relied heavily on US support.
An analysis of the summit by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, observed that Nato allies were increasingly recognising the importance of Asia-Pacific for their own security.
“Forty per cent of Europe’s trade passes through an increasingly contested South China Sea, while Russia’s war in Ukraine has been propped up by imports of North Korean munitions and Chinese dual-use goods,” it said.
The four Indo-Pacific partners in the alliance – Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea – have become a regular presence at high-level Nato summits since 2022.
Tokyo, along with the US and other Nato countries, has signed a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine. South Korea is reportedly considering the same.
“Increasing Russia-North Korea military cooperation, and Russia’s attempt to coerce South Korea into ceasing support for Ukraine, may bring Seoul closer to Brussels too,” the report said.
China and Russia have both warned against Nato’s eastward expansion.
The Biden administration official on Friday clarified that Nato remained focused on the Euro-Atlantic area, and “that’s where its capabilities are being deployed. And so not in the Indo Pacific”.
He added that discussions with Indo-Pacific partners would be on issues related to cyber, disinformation and technology in terms of deterrence and defence.
