China’s ruling Communist Party will begin a key meeting on Monday that may determine the country’s course for the next decade.
The event could be the most important “defining moment” of President Xi Jinping’s rule since a similar gathering in 2013 that set out his vision for reforming the country, according to one political researcher from Tsinghua University.
He said the watershed third plenum would be used by the party elite to review achievements under Xi’s leadership and lay down plans to hit goals set for 2035, “which will lay the groundwork for the president’s grand legacy of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049”.
The main focus of the meeting of more than 370 full and alternate members of the party’s Central Committee is expected to be deciding the best strategy for coping with the economic challenges facing the country.
The event, formally known as the third plenum of the 20th Central Committee, is also likely to offer more details about the road map for reaching a series of interim industrial and technological goals to be reached by 2035 and the target of becoming a technology superpower with a world-class military by 2049.
The event is expected to close on Thursday with a brief communique summarising the key decisions. According to precedent, this should then be followed within days by a full party document outlining the decisions made.
However, observers warned that these documents would only set out the general policy direction – often overlaid with party jargon – and a fuller picture would only emerge once specific policy details and the country’s next five-year plan are unveiled in the coming months.
The event comes at a time when Beijing is trying to assure both foreign business and the domestic private sector about the country’s economic prospects – a challenge some of the most significant third plenums have tried to address in the past.
Beijing also faces other major domestic challenges including a demographic crisis, sluggish growth and mounting debts among local governments as well as increasing pressure from the West following the recent Nato summit that denounced Beijing as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Apart from economic policy, observers will also be watching to see how the plenum handles the cases of three Central Committee members facing corruption inquiries – former defence minister Li Shangfu, former agriculture minister Tang Renjian and former rocket force chief Li Yuchao – as well as alternate member Li Shisong, a former deputy governor of Yunnan.
There will also be keen interest in any clues about the fate of Qin Gang, who was abruptly dismissed as foreign minister last year, and a possible announcement that Li Shangfu’s successor Dong Jun has been given a place on the Central Military Commission.
State news agency Xinhua has been setting the tone for the gathering with a series of articles praising the achievements of the past decade followed by another series on the “inspirational” lessons to be drawn from Xi’s rule in the past decade.
Meanwhile, the security apparatus has been urged to “make every effort to safeguard national security and social stability” in the build-up, with Chen Wenqing, the party’s most senior security official, stressing that the event coincides with this year’s 75th anniversary of the founding the People’s Republic of China.
Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis, said Xi would use the plenum to advance his existing agenda focused on party control, technological self-reliance, financial de-risking, social welfare, and supply-side industrial policy.
“But the political challenges of economic pessimism could lead to some very modest ‘positive surprises’. The most intriguing new signals ahead of the plenum suggest the possibility of more pro-business policies in hi-tech domains, although Xi does not want to unleash entrepreneurs and markets but rather harness them to develop technology and boost manufacturing,” he said.
“Positive but not transformational signals that appear likely include increasing central borrowing to support local public services, allowing localities to raise and retain more revenue, cracking down on local protectionism, relaxing the household registration system, reducing the negative list for foreign investment, and reforms to data markets, rural land rights, and SOE [state-owned enterprises] governance.”
A political analyst based in mainland China, who requested anonymity, said the event would provide the blueprint for the next five-year plan, which will run from 2026 to 2030.
“If you find the party language [in the documents published after the plenum] too difficult to understand, just wait for the next government work report in March and the next five-year plan, major important policies will be there. You should wait until then to decide if there is anything to celebrate,” he said.