China-US relations are likely to become more volatile in the coming years, with both sides competing to win over third countries – a dynamic already reshaping global supply chains, according to analysts.
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“We’re going to see cycles of ups and downs. They’re going to test each other,” said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser at the US think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies, at a forum in Beijing on Thursday. “What we’ve seen over time is the amplitude of those cycles that has got higher and higher since 2018.”
During a session on the multipolar world at the 2025 Caixin Summit, Kennedy noted that both nations remain deeply interdependent despite possessing tools capable of inflicting economic pain on each other.
Following the “small deal” reached after the two presidents met last month, a temporary truce – lasting a year or more – could create space for further negotiations, he added.
But he also warned that domestic political pressures could push US President Donald Trump towards a more hawkish stance, leveraging new tools and tougher policies.
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As the world’s two largest economies remain locked in tensions and uncertainty, the rest of the world has not remained immune to the fallout.